CBO: Public Option To Attract Only 6 Million Enrollees & Doesn’t Offer Lower Premiums
CBO: Public Option To Attract Only 6 Million Enrollees & Doesn’t Offer Lower Premiums
The Congressional Budget Office analysis of the recently released House health bill has concluded that the bill costs $894 billion over 10 years and reduces the deficit by $104B over 10 years.
The public option would attract about 6 million enrollees by 2019 and charge premiums that are “somewhat higher than the average premiums for the private plans in the exchanges.” This is because the public option would “engage in less management of utilization” by its enrollees and “attract a less healthy pool of enrollees,” the office concludes. Moreover, since the House bill expands Medicaid up to 150% of the federal poverty line, it’s possible that the enrollees that would have enrolled in the public option went into Medicaid instead.
Below is a comparison of the relevant provisions in the House and Senate Finance Committee legislation:
| CBO Score Of House Bill | CBO Score Of Baucus Bill | |
| Costs | Reduce deficits: $104B/10yrs Cost: $894B/10yrs Spends on subsidies: $605B/10yrs On Medicaid/CHIP: $425B/10yrs On Small Employer Credit: $25B/10yrs |
Reduce deficits: $81B/10yrs Cost: $829B/10yrs Spends on subsidies: $461B/10yrs On Medicaid/CHIP: $345B/10yrs On Small Employer Credit: $23B/10yrs |
| Insured | Uninsured reduced by: 36M Uninsured in 2019: 18M In Exchanges: 30M | Public Plan: 6M In Medicaid: 15M |
Uninsured reduced by: 29M Uninsured in 2019: 25M In Exchanges: 23M In Medicaid: 14M |
| Revenue | Mandate penalty: $33B/10yrs Pay-Play penalty: $135B/10yrs New taxes: $572B/10yrs |
Mandate penalty: $4B/10yrs Free rider penalty: $23B/10yrs New taxes: $196B/10yrs |
| Medicare and Medicaid |
Total savings: 426B/10yrs Medicare Advantage: $170B/10yrs |
Total savings: 404B/10yrs Medicare Advantage: $117B/10yrs |
3 Responses to “CBO: Public Option To Attract Only 6 Million Enrollees & Doesn’t Offer Lower Premiums”
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The House bill is AMAZING!!
October 30th, 2009 at 8:25 amThat’s interesting.
Personally, I’d rather have Medicaid expansion than public plan expansion. However, this is a compelling argument for Medicare +5 to be added as an amendment.
A strong public option IS conservative! It saves the government money that we’re otherwise wasting!
October 30th, 2009 at 10:22 amso it will cover very few and those few will have to pay a lot more?? Something seems off here. The gov’t needs to learn from this healthmanagement non-profit. http://cli.gs/z3AtaY
October 30th, 2009 at 1:16 pm