Scientists: Political ‘Reality’ Will Lead To Climate Catastrophe
Scientists: Political ‘Reality’ Will Lead To Climate Catastrophe
“Climate researchers now predict the planet will warm by 6.3 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century even if the world’s leaders fulfill their most ambitious climate pledges, a much faster and broader scale of change than forecast just two years ago.” This analysis was conducted by the Climate Interactive project, led by climate scientist Dr. Robert Corell, the chair of the Heinz Center’s Climate Action Initiative. The researchers fed the possible commitments by the world’s nations for the global climate deal to be negotiated this December in Copenhagen, Denmark into a dynamic model that projects how the climate will respond:
We collected emissions reductions proposals in the public domain up until September, 2009 – and found that even if these were fully implemented they would be far from sufficient to meet the goal of stabilizing atmospheric CO2 levels at or below 350 ppm, reaching instead about 716 ppm CO2 and 944 CO2e by 2100. These proposals would not be sufficient to limit warming to 2°C over pre-industrial temperatures, creating instead approximately 3.5°C of temperature increase by 2100.
As top climate scientist Stefan Rahmstorf explained at the Copenhagen Climate Change Congress in March, even limiting global warming to two degrees Centigrade above historical levels — 1.3 degrees (2.3 F) above current temperatures — isn’t as safe as Russian roulette. However, the scientists behind the analysis recognize that taking action is dramatically better than business as usual. Andrew Jones writes that this finding could also be described in a positive light — “New Analysis Shows Growing Commitment to a Global Deal Will Help Stabilize Climate“:
Following the “current proposals” path is much better than “business as usual” path. Many countries have offered concrete proposals, others (like China) are looking more encouraging, and the results add up. About 3100 gigatons of CO2e would be kept out of the atmosphere between now and the end of the century, resulting in CO2 levels 239 ppm lower and the world a full degree C cooler by 2100 (3.5 degrees C vs. 4.5).
The leaders of the world’s top economies — and greatest polluters — are now meeting in Pittsburgh for the G-20 summit. The chair of the International Panel on Climate Change, Rajendra Pachauri, and Center for American Progress president John Podesta have now made a dramatic appeal to those leaders to “reflect this imperative” that “that temperatures should not be allowed to exceed 2 degrees Celsius and that, as a consequence, global emissions must be reduced 50 percent by 2050.”
The Climate Initiative analysis provides evidence that even that target is likely insufficient to keep warming below 2 degrees Celsius. The G-20 should accept scientific reality and recognize that the goals they are now debating represent a minimal effort to stave off planetary catastrophe.
4 Responses to “Scientists: Political ‘Reality’ Will Lead To Climate Catastrophe”
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Progressives need to be educated about the Argonne project (killed in the mid ’90s), as the inevitable political storm approaches with Energy reform.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Integral_Fast_Reactor
http://bravenewclimate.com/integral-fast-reactor-ifr-nuclear-power/
Even Gore is under misconceptions on this technology.
September 25th, 2009 at 4:44 pmThe U.N. report is disappointing, to say the least. The greenhouse effect is misrepresented, and then ‘holes’ are envisioned in political policies, which are described as woefully inadequate!? As a lay scientist, and hobbiest, I know that:
*the ‘grenhouse effect’ is the heating of our atmosphere by sunlight; IMO, this is why the sixteen daylight hours, are always warmer than the eight night-time hours, despite the midday setting of the sun!
*ozone depletion means that the molecule O3 has been formed in our atmosphere, at elevations where normal gases have been depleted; this happens because chemically reactive pollutants released by coal, wood, and oil burning ’stick around’ and less normal gases remain at those levels!
The effect of ozone depletion is to have a hotter atmosphere-because the normal gases absorb more radiation than O3 gases;
and where O3 gases exist, sunlight streams full-strength, further down closer to us, before it is mostly absorbed by natural gases! It feels hotter, and although no more sunlight hits the Earth, we can feel the brunt of its warming closer to the surface!?
IMO, the report attributes ‘the greenhouse effect’ to unkown, or unknowable sources, and proceeds to discuss politics from an ‘already-behind-the-eight-ball’ point of view!?
September 28th, 2009 at 12:23 amThe most discouraging thing of all is the large number of people who shout that Global Warming is a Left Wing Hoax.
September 28th, 2009 at 6:31 pmNo the most disturbing thing is that business leaders and conservatives who want more money have no qualms about destroying the only known life sustaining habitat in the entire universe, as long as they die with the most toys.
I am no scientist, but I have an intuition that tells me that we have already past the point of no return as far as atmospheric pollution goes. If we humans can’t come up with some incredibly techno-savvy way of reversing the trend of climate change and stabilizing the delicate balance required to maintain our eco-sphere I think our days are numbered. We can then lay claim to having been the only creature ever know to have begun existence in a garden of eden, complete with all the necessities of life, and with our own hands turned what was heaven into hell thereby terminating our selves.
Give yourselves a hand you greedy self-centered egotistical bastards.
September 29th, 2009 at 12:37 am