NEW LEWIN STUDY: Millions of Americans Would Enroll In New Public Option
NEW LEWIN STUDY: Millions of Americans Would Enroll In New Public Option
The Lewin Group has released a new report that “examines potential impacts that a public health plan might have in competing for enrollment with the private insurance industry.” The report models “several variations on the public model” but the short conclusion is this: millions of Americans could abandon private insurance and enroll in the new public plan:
- 30% lower premiums in public plan if the public program used Medicare rates of reimbursement.
- 32.0 million Americans would leave private insurance and enroll in a new public plan under limited eligibility rules
- 10.4 million people would switch to the public plan if the new program used private payer reimbursement levels and only offered coverage to small employers, individuals, or the self employed
- 119.1 million Americans would leave private health insurance if the public plan used Medicare payments and was opened to all employers
The 119.1 million number vindicates advocates of the public plan. If the public program relied on Medicare reimbursement rates, it could charge premiums up to 30 percent less than premiums for comparable private coverage. But the political conversation has moved towards a model that establishes a level playing field for private and public insurers and provides a public option to those Americans — individuals, the self-employed and small employers — who currently lack choice.
Still, Lewin’s numbers deserve some healthy scrutiny. The firm assumes that “the public plan would be implemented as part of a health reform program” of greater insurance regulation and access to coverage, but it does not capture the reaction of the market place.
In other words, Lewin assumes that President Obama’s health reforms would eliminate medical underwriting and health status rating; it does not predict how private insurers would react to a new public competitor. Would they offer lower rates, design plans with greater flexibility or create some other incentives to retain customers? Lewin doesn’t say.
The keys here are competition and choice. Conservative critics will surely hijack the study to argue that ‘millions of Americans will lose their health insurance coverage,’ but the reality is much more democratic: if millions of Americans are not satisfied with private insurance and believe that a public option would offer better quality at lower costs, then they will stop rewarding private insurers for providing expensive inferior coverage.
But public opinion surveys also undermine Lewin’s assumptions. While 73 percent of voters support having the choice of a public plan, 80 percent of Americans questioned in a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey said “they’re satisfied with the quality of health care they receive.” Ultimately, if we level the playing field and force private insurers to compete with a new public option, Americans will have the choice of enrolling in a new public plan and it will be up to the private insurers to beat the public competition.
6 Responses to “NEW LEWIN STUDY: Millions of Americans Would Enroll In New Public Option”
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When looked at further, the high “satisfied with health care they receive” reflects high satisfaction that people have with their doctors. Polls that distinqiush between “Like your insurance company” and “like your doctor” make it clear which group is liked and which is not.
Other Polls show about 66% supporting “Expanded and Imrpoved Medicare for All” and 55% “Single Payer.” So of course they cannot be allowed to be on the table.
April 6th, 2009 at 2:07 pmDoes the study distinguish based on who’s paying for coverage, the employer or the employee?
As usual WR mixes insurance satisfaction with health care quality received. Insurance is mostly a financing mechanism, although it can restrict options available to clinicians in caring for the patients.
April 6th, 2009 at 3:00 pmI would like to see a polling company ask, “are you satisfied with the level of preventative care encouraged by your insurance plan’s deductibles?”
April 6th, 2009 at 3:23 pmAs a retired healthcare professional, I would like a more indepth study to assure that physicians and hospitals can afford this public funding option, as I would hate to see hospitals close due to lack of funding.
Major public hospitals have alternative funding for medical students, residents, fellows, etc and that needs to continue, as what is healthcare without physicians and what are physicians without hospitals.
I am concerned that there will remain a group of individuals who will “fall through the cracks” and we as a society need to decide how their healthcare is to be paid for.
The numbers in the report seem to reflect that Americans support healthcare for all and although there are many issues that also need to be considered, a strong push for preventive healthcare will be the lynchpin for success, along with a strong Advanced Directive for all adults (over a to be specified age).
April 6th, 2009 at 5:02 pmHow about a cooperative method? If you have insurance now
April 13th, 2009 at 4:59 pmwhether provided by your employer or by your own private
policy, let the government subsidize some percentage, say
20-30% such that you have the very best policy available.
These percentages could vary based on your health status,
your ability to pay, your employers ability to pay, etc.
The percentage would go to 100% until you are employed.
Then your employer is required to provide at least 50% of
your coverage minimum. This makes more sense. Everybody
gets covered, and at less cost to the government (or you
as you are really paying for it).
Is Medicare addressed? Is there an interconnect?
April 15th, 2009 at 7:37 pm