Global Boiling Roulette: The Margin For Error Is Gone
Global Boiling Roulette: The Margin For Error Is Gone
In 2002, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change designed the “Greenhouse Gamble” roulette wheels to depict the “probability of potential global warming over the next hundred years,” based on the latest scientific research. They compared the gamble of warming with and without an international agreement to reduce emissions through programs like the cap and trade system proposed by President Obama. Today, they released updated roulette wheels, reflecting how much worse the gamble has gotten:
| The ‘No Policy’ Gamble (2002 v. 2009) | |
|---|---|
| 2002 | 2009 |
 |
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| These wheels assume a scenario in which “no policy” action is taken to try to curb the global emissions of greenhouse gases. In the previous wheel the likelihood of exceeding 5°C was about 4%, but in the new wheels that likelihood is 57%. MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2009. |
|
| The ‘Policy Action’ Gamble (2002 v. 2009) | |
|---|---|
| 2002 | 2009 |
 |
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| If greenhouse gas emissions are controlled to relatively low levels then the Earth systems feedbacks are much lower, but there is no longer any possibility of less than 1°C warming. MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2009. |
|
The “policy” scenario reflects the establishment of mandatory policies to reduce emissions, such as building standards and cap and trade systems, that limit total carbon dioxide concentrations to 550 parts per million. However, as climate scientist Stefan Rahmstorf recently explained, even limiting warming to two degrees Centigrade cannot be considered safe, which is why there is a growing demand for policies that limit CO2 concentrations to 350 ppm.
The new roulette wheels were initially released in February 2009, with a reset color scale that made a direct comparison between the old and new scenarios difficult. The Wonk Room thanks the Global Change Program for taking our suggestion to update the wheels.
5 Responses to “Global Boiling Roulette: The Margin For Error Is Gone”
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China had seven years to serve as the world’s factory and American branded multinationals took advantage.
Not only did we lose over 2 million jobs, the world added lots of greenhouse gases.
March 28th, 2009 at 3:27 pmThe mulitinationals got increased profits and banner executive incentive compensation.
March 28th, 2009 at 3:28 pmCathy Zoi forwards this from Repower America:
———- Forwarded message ———-
Meet Troy
From: Troy Galloway
Subject: Worst day of my life
The worst day of my life was when I got that pink slip. I expected to work in the steel mill until the day I retired, and then suddenly my job and my livelihood were gone.
Then in 2006 a wind turbine company opened two plants near my home in Hollsopple, Pennsylvania. Today, I build the blades for wind turbines that are powering parts of America with clean electricity.
A clean energy job saved my family and me, and many more in my community. But with the current economic mess, even some of my smartest and hardest-working friends here are still struggling — as I know millions of Americans are.
That’s why I am asking you for help.
We need millions more green jobs — like the one that saved me — all across the nation. And those jobs will only be available if our leaders in Washington take bold steps.
Please sign the petition to our leaders here:
http://www.RepowerAmerica.org/troyvideo
Here’s what the petition says:
“Congress must support bold national policies this year to transition to a clean energy economy and help solve the climate crisis. We urge you to cap carbon pollution to help create the jobs and businesses that will Repower America.”
I’m hearing some talk on TV about how we can’t afford to deal with the climate crisis and the economic crisis at the same time. Well, my experience shows we can’t afford not to. The green jobs that reduce carbon pollution are this country’s ticket out of a deep economic rut.
I hear that we lost half a million jobs last month. Imagine if those laid-off workers could turn in their pink slips for jobs in wind, solar, clean cars and green technology.
Well, our leaders in Washington have an opportunity to deliver green jobs like these to cities and towns all across America.
Send them a message today:
http://www.RepowerAmerica.org/troyvideo
Sincerely,
Troy
March 28th, 2009 at 5:30 pmAnyone who doesn’t want to get to 350 ppm CO2 won’t be able to learn how to terraform as well as those who do.
March 29th, 2009 at 2:56 amI agree with Troy. We are going to have to elect more Democrats in 2010 ‘tho, because the obstructionist Republican party with their band of Climate Change deniers in their ranks will only try to effectively block any meaningful legislation.
March 30th, 2009 at 4:05 pm