By Gunnar Heinsohn

As the world decries Israel’s attempt to defend itself from the
rocket attacks coming from Gaza, consider this: When Hamas routed
Fatah in Gaza in 2007, it cost nearly 350 lives and 1,000 wounded.
Fatah’s surrender brought only a temporary stop to the type of
violence and bloodshed that are commonly seen in lands where at least
30% of the male population is in the 15-to-29 age bracket.

In such “youth bulge” countries, young men tend to eliminate each
other or get killed in aggressive wars until a balance is reached
between their ambitions and the number of acceptable positions
available in their society. In Arab nations such as Lebanon (150,000
dead in the civil war between 1975 and 1990) or Algeria (200,000 dead
in the Islamists’ war against their own people between 1999 and
2006), the slaughter abated only when the fertility rates in these
countries fell from seven children per woman to fewer than two. The
warring stopped because no more warriors were being born.

In Gaza, however, there has been no demographic disarmament. The
average woman still bears six babies. For every 1,000 men aged 40-44,
there are 4,300 boys aged 0-4 years. In the U.S., the latter figure
is 1,000 and in the U.K. it’s only 670.

And so the killing continues. In 2005, when Israel was still an
occupying force, Gaza lost more young men to gang fights and crime
than in its war against the “Zionist enemy.” Despite the media’s
obsession with the Mideast conflict, it has cost many fewer lives
than the youth bulges in West Africa, Lebanon or Algeria. In the six
decades since Israel’s founding, “only” some 62,000 people (40,000
Arabs, 22,000 Jews) have been killed in all the Israeli-Arab wars and
Palestinian terror attacks.

During that same time, some 11 million Muslims have been killed in
wars and terror attacks-mostly at the hands of other Muslims.

What accounts for the Mideast conflict’s relatively low body count?
Hamas and their ilk certainly aim to kill as many Israelis as possible.
To their indignation, the Israelis are quite good at protecting
themselves. On the other hand, Israel, despite all the talk about its
“disproportionate” use of force, is doing its utmost to spare
civilian deaths. Even Hamas acknowledges that most of the
Palestinians killed by Israeli air raids are from their own ranks.
But about 10%-15% of Gaza’s casualties are women and minors-a tragedy
impossible to prevent in a densely settled area in which nearly half
the people are under 15 and the terrorists hide among them.

The reason for Gaza’s endless youth bulge is that a large majority of
its population does not have to provide for its offspring. Most
babies are fed, clothed, vaccinated and educated by UNRWA, the United
Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near
East. Unlike the U.N. High Commission for Refugees, which deals with the rest of the
world’s refugees and aims to settle them in their respective host
countries, UNWRA perpetuates the Palestinian problem by classifying
as refugees not only those who originally fled their homes, but all
of their descendents as well.

UNRWA is benevolently funded by the U.S. (31%) and the European Union
(nearly 50%)-only 7% of the funds come from Muslim sources. Thanks to
the West’s largesse, nearly the entire population of Gaza lives in a
kind of lowly but regularly paid dependence. One result of this
unlimited welfare is an endless population boom. Between 1950 and
2008, Gaza’s population has grown from 240,000 to 1.5 million. The
West basically created a new Near Eastern people in Gaza that at
current trends will reach three million in 2040. Within that period,
Gazans may alter the justifications and directions of their
aggression but are unlikely to stop the aggression itself.

The Hamas-Fatah truce of June 2007 allowed the Islamists again to
direct all their energy on attacking Israel. The West pays for food,
schools, medicine and housing, while Muslim nations help out with the
military hardware. Unrestrained by such necessities as having to earn
a living, the young have plenty of time on their hands for digging
tunnels, smuggling, assembling missiles and firing 4,500 of them at
Israel since 2006. While this gruesome activity has slowed the
Palestinian internecine slaughter, it forced some 250,000 Israelis into
bomb shelters.

The current situation can only get worse. Israel is being pushed into
a corner. Gazan teenagers have no future other than war. One rocket
master killed is immediately replaced by three young men for whom a
martyr’s death is no less honorable than victory. Some 230,000 Gazan
males, aged 15 to 29, who are available for the battlefield now, will be
succeeded by 360,000 boys under 15 (45% of all Gazan males) who could
be taking up their arms within the coming 15 years.

As long as we continue to subsidize Gaza’s extreme demographic
armament, young Palestinians will likely continue killing their
brothers or neighbors. And yet, despite claiming that it wants to
bring peace to the region, the West continues to make the population
explosion in Gaza worse every year. By generously supporting UNWRA’s
budget, the West assists a rate of population increase that is 10
times higher than in their own countries. Much is being said about
Iran waging a proxy war against Israel by supporting Hezbollah and
Hamas. One may argue that by fueling Gaza’s untenable population
explosion, the West unintentionally finances a war by proxy against the
Jews of Israel.

If we seriously want to avoid another generation of war in Gaza, we
must have the courage to tell the Gazans that they will have to start
looking after their children themselves, without UNRWA’s help. This
would force Palestinians to focus on building an economy instead of
freeing them up to wage war. Of course, every baby lured into the
world by our money up to now would still have our assistance.

If we make this urgently needed reform, then by at least 2025 boys in
Gaza-like in Algeria-would enter puberty as only sons. They would be
able to look forward to a more secure future in a less violent society.

If the West prefers calm around Gaza even before 2025, it may
consider offering immigration to those young Palestinians only born
because of the West’s well-meant but cruelly misguided aid. In the
decades to come, North America and Europe will have to take in tens
of millions of immigrants anyway to slow the aging of their
populations. If, say, 200,000 of them are taken from the 360,000 boys
coming of age in Gaza in the next 15 years, that would be a
negligible move for the big democracies but a quantum leap for peace in
the Near East.

Many of Gaza’s young-like in much of the Muslim world-dream of
leaving anyway. Who would not want to get out of that strip of land
but the international NGO’s and social workers whose careers depend
on perpetuating Gaza’s misery.

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Mr. Heinsohn heads the Raphael Lemkin Institute at the University of Bremen, Europe’s first institute devoted to comparative genocide research.

Now the Israelis can deal with the PLO, but must destroy Hamas. Which means in 10 or 20 years, Israelis will be longing for the good old days of Hamas.

Israel wants the Salafists to grow in power so they have a better excuse for escalation. The real goal is to bring Syria and Lebanon in, so Israel can eventually control the territory necessary to build a pipeline to Iraq’s oil fields.

I guess like the U.S. conservatives, they just have to have an enemy to fight. A few rockets and they go crazy, like always.

When you eliminate or make powerless the decent opposition, what emerges is the indecent opposition. Lather, rinse, repeat, each time with a less and less decent opposition.

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3650188,00.html

Pope: War won’t solve Holy Land problems

Benedict XVI calls for end of violence in Gaza Strip in speech before pilgrims, saying history has shown ‘war and hate aren’t the solution,’ urges faithful to pray for peace.

V.P. Cheney called the Arab League peace plan viable. Only it’s been on the table since 2002. Israel doesn’t want to give up land for peace.