I first noticed during the record breaking 2005 hurricane season (getting all the way up to “Hurricane Gamma” in November) that the peak of hurricane season appeared to be shifting to later and later in the year (the “official” of hurricane season is November 30th). Why?

Well, hurricanes derive their circulation much the way tornadoes do… warm air rapidly rising as cold air falls. Twisting past each other creates the spin. But with less and less upper atmosphere cold air due to global warming, despite very warm seas, we are seeing fewer storms in the early storm season, until colder Winter air arrives late in the year.

But because of global warming, the seas are still very warm as late as December, so a storm season that should be almost non-existent towars the end, is becoming more and more active.

And if the warming continues and the oceans’ stay warmer longer into January or even February, the hurricane season will shift as well.

“Calm” hurricane seasons like we saw in ‘06 & ‘07 can be attributed to the upper atmosphere never really getting cold enough to produce the circulation needed to produce storms. But that cold air can’t be avoided in January or February. Thus, if global warming persists and the seas stay warmer later into the year, the later months are bound to produce not only more storms, but the most violent ones.